Introduction

With our perpetual tenacity to move forward and enhance our lives through new technological avenues, electric vehicles (EVs) have emerged as one of the latest ‘innovations’ (yes, we know, electric cars existed almost 200 years ago), promising reduced carbon emissions and a sustainable alternative to fossil fuel-powered vehicles.

However, with every new change comes the challenges, setbacks, fears and myths associated with it, and these perspectives formed from unclear facts are especially prevalent in today’s age of social media. Often, we see alarming headlines about EVs bursting into flames. Are these concerns legitimate, or are they just fueling a fire of misinformation? Let us separate facts from an ocean of myths in the electrifying world of EVs and fire safety.

Market Trends: The Accelerating Growth of EVs

Before diving into the myths and facts about EV fires, it is essential to understand the market dynamics of electric vehicles. The EV market is not just growing; it is accelerating at a remarkable pace. The following paragraphs provide some key trends shaping the future of EVs.

Explosive Growth and Adoption

The global EV market has seen exponential growth over the past decade. In 2020, the number of electric cars on the road surpassed 10 million, marking a 43% increase from the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1]. This surge is driven by a combination of technological advancements, regulatory incentives, and a growing public awareness of climate change.

This growth is in part driven by the fact that many governments around the world are implementing policies to accelerate the adoption of EVs. Countries like Norway and the Netherlands are leading the way with aggressive targets and incentives. Norway, for example, aims to sell only zero-emission cars by 2025 [2]. The United States has set a goal for EVs to make up 50% of all new vehicle sales by 2030, backed by substantial federal investments in EV infrastructure with a focus robust charging infrastructure making EV ownership more convenient and accessible.

Battery Technology and Cost Reduction

Advances in battery technology are crucial to the growth of the EV market. The cost of lithium-ion batteries has dropped by nearly 80% over the past decade [3], thus making EVs more affordable for consumers. Additionally, new developments in solid-state batteries promise to deliver even greater efficiency, longer range, and faster charging times.

Consumer Acceptance and Market Demand

The consumer acceptance of EVs is growing as people become more environmentally conscious and aware of the benefits of electric driving. According to a survey by McKinsey, nearly 40% of consumers considering a new vehicle purchase are now open to buying an EV. This shift in consumer sentiment is reflected in the increasing market share of EVs, which continues to rise every year.

Let's move on to some hard-learned facts and common myths. If we do not address these now, they could become widely accepted as truths, especially in our fast-paced, social media-driven world.

Myth 1: EVs Catch Fire More Often Than ICE Vehicles

One of the most persistent myths is that EVs are more prone to catching fire than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. However, the data tells a different story.

Fact Check: Studies show that EVs are actually less likely to catch fire compared to ICE vehicles. For instance, a report from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) indicates that for every 100,000 EVs on the road, there are about 25 fires. In contrast, there are 1,530 fires for every 100,000 ICE vehicles. Similarly, in a recent report published by the Denmark’s emergency management agency [5], for average period of 2018-2021 there were 2.8 fires per 10,000 registered EV. However, in the same period there were 4.6 fires per 10,000 registered ICE vehicles. Two facts are worth noting here. First, the two data sets are vastly different, and other discrepancies of this nature are found in yet other datasets. Thus, there is a need for better statistics. Second, and the main point - there is no support for saying that EVs are more prone to fires. In fact, the existing information points to the opposite being the case.

Point to remember: Most vehicle fires tend to occur in older cars with high mileage and poor maintenance. For electric vehicles (EVs), this issue might become more significant in the future since EVs are relatively new compared to traditional gas-powered cars. This raises questions about whether we will see more EV fires as the vehicles age.

However, there is some further positive news with respect to the fire safety of aging EVs. According to a recent post by EV Firesafe, the current data suggests an exceptionally minimal risk of thermal runaway in EVs. Although this dataset is still preliminary, it is a promising sign for the future of EV fire safety.                

Myth 2: EVs catch fire spontaneously on the road and in car parks

A common misconception is that all EV batteries are fragile and ready to burst into flames while the vehicles are coasting on a highway. Let us look at this from an informed perspective.

Fact Check: According to a 2023 NIPV report [2], there were 316 incidents (164 accidents and 152 fires) involving a total of 333 alternative-powered vehicles (APVs) (which includes plug-in hybrid, CNG, LPG and EVs, with the two electric types being the major part of the statistics), as shown in Figure 3. Of these 333 vehicles, 170 were involved in accidents and 163 were involved in fires. The 164 accidents resulted in 5 fires with 2 resulting in ‘thermal runaway’ and 3 in fires without battery involvement. [Edited paragraph (as well as a sentence correction later): Thanks to Tom Hessels from NIPV for fact-checking us :)]

Figure 4 then further shows that in case of fires, the battery is not involved in most of the fires. As such, a fire on the road involving an EV will only very rarely make EVs an imminent threat

Further to that, a study conducted in Sweden shows that only around 5% of of all fatalities from collisions involving conventional passenger cars, SUVs, vans, and minibuses resulted from fires ignited during the accidents [6]. This aligns with the data provided by  NFPA on Vehicle Fires [7], which also showed that only 5% of vehicle fires are due to collisions (see Figure 5). This shows the vulnerability of ICE cars with tendency to catch fire on their own while moving due to the nature of their fuel systems, age and engine components.

So, it turns out that EVs are inherently safer than the ICE counterparts when it comes to spontaneous fires during operation, as they rely more on external factors to ignite. However, the counterpart of this statistics is that EVs are more prone to fires while the vehicles are not being operated. This is very important to take note of, as these car fire scenarios are very different that what we are used to. In fact, this is probably one of the reasons why EV fires are getting so much attention, namely that they are occurring in ways that are new to us. Novelty is always newsworthy!

Still, there is more good news with respect to the safety of EVs on the road. As most EV fires on roads are triggered by external factors such as severe collisions leading to thermal, mechanical and electrical abuse, the risk can to a large extent be prevented by insulating batteries against thermal runaway and using battery management systems (BMS).

In enclosures like car parks or ferries, on the other hand, incorporating better design methods and improving charging systems with built-in overcharging and fire protection features appear to be necessary in order to reduce the risk (probability times consequence) associated with EV fires. By integrating customized safety measures, we can help prevent potential issues and ensure a safer environment for electric vehicles.

Discussing car park fire safety in detail is too big of a topic to include here, and it has also been discussed in an earlier Burning Matters newsletter, so the interested reader is encouraged to read “Car Park Fire Safety”. However, we will include one important piece of information related to the size of the fires.

Point to remember: Even in the worst-case scenarios where EVs catch fire, the peak heat release rate is quite similar to that of conventional vehicles [8] . Still, there are some key differences related to how long the fires last and the challenges involved in extinguishing them.

When an EV burns, it typically goes through two peaks in heat release rate. As seen from Figure 6, the first peak occurs when the combustible materials in the vehicle catch fire. The second, and often more intense, peak happens when the battery cells get involved [8]. This dual-phase process not only extends the duration of the fire but also increases the risk of re-ignition, posing a greater threat to the structural safety of the area and any nearby vehicles. Finally, the jet fires that can occur when the battery pack is involved also create significant and new challenges related to spread between vehicles.

Myth 3: EVs: If it burns, it is going to explode

Some people believe that EVs are like ticking time bombs, ready to explode without warning. Spoiler alert: this is not true.

Fact Check: For an explosion to occur, five key elements need to come together, forming what is known as the “pentagon of explosion.”

It is important to highlight the role of confinement in EV fires. Most EV fires occur in open areas, which allows volatile gases to disperse rather than collect in one spot. This significantly reduces the risk of explosions. For instance, data from EV Firesafe, which examined 511 EV fires, shows that explosions happened in only 2.6% of the cases, as shown in Figure 8. This suggests that when EV fires are not confined, the risk of explosions is much lower because the gases have the space to dissipate rather than build up [10].

That said, explosions do occur and it is important for bystanders and fire service personnel to take the necessary precautions, as explosions happen very fast and often rather unannounced, like in this case in Ghent, Belgium.

Myth 4:  EV Fires Are Always More Toxic than ICE Fires

Another sizzling myth is that EV fires release more toxic fumes compared fires in their gasoline-guzzling counterparts.

Fact Check: The increased use of plastics and polymers in modern vehicle construction leads to the release of various toxic elements when burning. Compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, EVs release similar toxic species like carbon dioxide, hydrogen cyanide, and carbon monoxide, even in terms of mass released. In the end, they are both cars, right.

However, Hydrogen Fluoride (HF) is of particular concern in EV fires as it is a highly corrosive and irritating gas that can cause respiratory issues and lung damage if inhaled. As opposed to CO and CO₂, HF is a directly toxic substance, and thus have significantly lower IDLH (Immediately Dangerous to Life or Health) levels. In fact, NIOSH provides an IDLH level for HF as 30 ppm, while 8-hour Permissible Exposure Limit (PEL) is 0.4 ppm. Obviously, exposure to HF depends largely on the location of the fire - with fires in enclosed spaces being more critical - and the involvement of the battery, which, as mentioned earlier, occurs less frequently.

In addition, from an environmental perspective, there are some heightened concerns related to EVs, as they have been reported to require a lot more extinguishing water, and this water can be even more contaminated than the run-off from ICE firefighting actions.

Point to remember: Firefighting to extinguish an EV fire requires approximately 10000 L of water [8], especially when the battery is involved in the fire, compared to 4000 L for an ICEV fire [12]. In 2019, research conducted in a Swiss tunnel [13] revealed some eye-opening facts about the environmental impact of fighting EV battery fires. They assessed a 4.15 kWh battery module, which is quite minor compared to the 8-10 times larger batteries typically found in electric vehicles.

The study found that the water used to extinguish these fires was heavily contaminated. Specifically, it held dangerously elevated levels of lithium and other heavy metals—much more than what is allowed for industrial waste entering sewage systems. This highlights that the used water requires proper treatment before it can be safely discharged into sewers or the environment.

Bridging the data gap for an informed EV transition

Myth-making often stems from a lack of concrete evidence, where fables and misconceptions take on a life of their own, leading people to believe in unverified and often exaggerated claims. To address this, we need a strategic approach on some vital areas to ensure that the transition to green mobility is not only sustainable but also safe for everyone requires a collective effort to share accurate data and insights. The following outlines that it can be done, but that it will require many different actions and involvements.

1.         Stakeholder Management:

2.         Governmental Regulations:

3.         Data Collection and Reporting:

4.         Effective Communication:

This way, we can address myths and misinformation with solid evidence, paving the way for safer scaling up of the number of EVs in our society.

Thanks for reading - we are happy to hear other opinions, and encourage other people to share facts and data.

Sameed and Grunde

References:

[1]         IEA, ‘Global EV Outlook 2024’, IEA, Paris. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024

[2]         ‘20240416-NIPV-Factsheet-Annual-report-2023-Incidents-with-alternative-fuel-vehicles.pdf’. Accessed: Aug. 01, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://nipv.nl/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/20240416-NIPV-Factsheet-Annual-report-2023-Incidents-with-alternative-fuel-vehicles.pdf

[3]         ‘Impact of raw material price decrease on battery industry’. Accessed: Jul. 31, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://cicenergigune.com/en/blog/impact-raw-material-price-decrease-battery-industry

[4]         ‘Vehicle statistics’. Accessed: Aug. 01, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.trafa.se/en/road-traffic/vehicle-statistics/

[5]         ‘New registrations and used cars- Denmark’. Accessed: Jul. 09, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/transport/transportmidler/nyregistrerede-og-brugte-biler

[6]         Å. Viklund, J. Björnstig, M. Larsson, and U. Björnstig, ‘Car Crash Fatalities Associated With Fire in Sweden’, Traffic Inj. Prev., vol. 14, no. 8, pp. 823–827, Nov. 2013, doi: 10.1080/15389588.2013.777956.

[7]         M. Ahrens, ‘Vehicle Fires Supporting Tables’, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, Mar. 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.nfpa.org/education-and-research/research/nfpa-research/fire-statistical-reports/vehicle-fires

[8]         P. Sun, R. Bisschop, H. Niu, and X. Huang, ‘A Review of Battery Fires in Electric Vehicles’, Fire Technol., vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 1361–1410, Jul. 2020, doi: 10.1007/s10694-019-00944-3.

[9]         ‘Explosion in China Draws Attention to Combustible Metal Dust – Safety Blog News’. Accessed: Aug. 01, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.safetyblognews.com/explosion-in-china-draws-attention-to-combustible-metal-dust/

[10]       ‘Covered car parks: fire safety guidance for electric vehicles’, 2023.

[11]       ‘02.1 EV battery fire data’, EV Fire Safe. Accessed: Aug. 01, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.evfiresafe.com/ev-battery-fire-data

[12]       O. K. Lim, ‘Fire Risk Mitigation Strategies for Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Car Parks’, Fire Sci. Eng., vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 46–55, Apr. 2024, doi: 10.7731/KIFSE.6da25455.

[13]       L. D. Mellert and U. Welte, ‘Risikominimierung von Elektrofahrzeugbränden in unterir- dischen Verkehrsinfrastrukturen’, 2020.

Grunde

I would love to hear your thoughts! Reach out through the Burning Matters feedback form.

Original LinkedIn Posts: